Adobe Digital Price Index: Online Inflation Slowing; Consumers Pull Back On Spending

Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today announced the latest online inflation data from the Adobe Digital Price Index (DPI), powered by Adobe Analytics. In April 2022, online prices increased 2.9%year-over-year (YoY), down from the record 3.6% YoY increase in March – a decrease of 0.5% month-over-month (MoM). While this marks the 23rd consecutive month of inflation online YoY, April shows early signs of online price increases beginning to slow. Over half of the categories tracked by the DPI (10 out of 18) saw MoM price decreases in April.

Prices for electronics were down 5.2% YoY (down 0.9% MoM), a record YoY low for the category over the last 12 months. Prices for apparel increased 12.3% YoY, while decreasing 1.7% MoM. Although this is the highest YoY increase of any category, it is down from recent highs (February at 16.7% YoY and March at 16.3% YoY). Prices have not eased for groceries, rising 10.3% YoY (up 1.3% MoM) as well as pet products, which rose 8.0% YoY (up 0.9% MoM), record YoY highs for both categories.

In April, consumers spent $77.8 billion online, which represents modest growth at 4.5% YoY. Online spending in the U.S. grew double digits at 12.2% YoY ($71 billion) in January and 15.5% ($67 billion) in February. Consumer spending in April is also below the $83.08 billion spent in March, representing a 6.8% decline MoM or $5.28 billion. With rising interest rates and persistent inflation, consumers have pulled back on spending for durable goods.

“As the cost of borrowing and economic uncertainty rises for consumers, we are beginning to see the early impact on both online inflation and spend,” said Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing and insights, Adobe. “However, durable demand for e-commerce still drove over $77 billion in spend last month, as consumers continue to embrace the ease of online shopping and more personalized customer experiences in the digital economy.”

The DPI provides the most comprehensive view into how much consumers pay for goods online. Powered by Adobe Analytics, it analyzes one trillion visits to retail sites and over 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories: electronics, apparel, appliances, books, toys, computers, groceries, furniture/bedding, tools/home improvement, home/garden, pet products, jewelry, medical equipment/supplies, sporting goods, personal care products, flowers/related gifts, non-prescription drug and office supplies.

In April, 13 of the 18 categories tracked by the DPI saw YoY price increases, with apparel rising the most. Price drops were observed in five categories: electronics, jewelry, books, toys and computers.

Eight of the 18 categories in the DPI saw price increases MoM. Price drops were observed across 10 categories including electronics, office supplies, jewelry, books, furniture/bedding, toys, home/garden, flowers/related gifts, computers and apparel.

Notable categories in the Adobe Digital Price Index for April:

The DPI is modeled after the Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and uses the Fisher Price Index to track online prices. The Fisher Price Index uses quantities of matched products purchased in the current period (month) and a previous period (previous month) to calculate the price changes by category. Adobe’s analysis is weighted by the real quantities of the products purchased in the two adjacent months.

Powered by Adobe Analytics, Adobe uses a combination of Adobe Sensei, Adobe’s AI and machine learning framework, and manual effort to segment the products into the categories defined by the CPI manual. The methodology was first developed alongside renowned economists Austan Goolsbee and Pete Klenow.

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